India exported a record 280.40 million kilograms of tea in 2025, but the first quarter of 2026 tells the harder story: shipments fell 21.01 million kilograms against the same months a year earlier, a decline of about 17%, as conflict and disrupted shipping lanes cut into West Asia. That region buys nearly half of India's tea, and for the orthodox grade it is closer to the whole market.

West Asian countries took 122.49 million kilograms of Indian tea in 2025, and four of them, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, accounted for about 40% of total exports the year before. The exposure is concentrated in orthodox, the whole-leaf style India sells at a premium over the CTC grade that dominates the domestic cup. Close to half of Assam's orthodox production is consumed by Iran alone, exporters say, which makes a single strained trade route a problem for the country's most valuable tea.

That route runs through the Strait of Hormuz, and the traffic has been moving the long way round. Vessels diverted around the Cape of Good Hope face delays of 10 to 20 days, and some consignments have arrived more than 40 days late, according to figures cited by trade bodies in Guwahati. For a perishable crop sold on freshness and matched to a buyer's season, a six-week delay is not a scheduling nuisance. It is a discount.

The Iran figures show how far the market has already slipped. India shipped 36 million kilograms of tea to Iran in 2020; through November 2025 the total was 13.38 million kilograms, a little over a third of that. "The war in the Middle East will have an impact on tea exports from India," said Mohit Agarwal, a leading exporter, who put Iran's share of Assam orthodox at roughly half. Bidyananda Barkakoty, adviser to the North Eastern Tea Association, and Dinesh Bihani, secretary of the Guwahati Tea Auction Buyers Association, have both warned that stranded consignments and a narrowing West Asian market threaten orthodox prices if alternative buyers do not absorb the surplus.

Not everyone will commit to the size of the hit. Anshuman Kanoria, chairman of the Indian Tea Exporters Association, called it "too premature" to assess. Trade estimates cited alongside the Q1 figures put full-year 2026 exports on course to fall at least 20% if the disruption holds, though that projection rests on the shipping lanes staying closed, which no one can price with confidence. What the figures already show is plainer: the record volumes of 2025 were built on a West Asian trade that the first quarter of 2026 has started to take back, and the orthodox growers of Assam, with the fewest alternative buyers, stand first in line to feel it.

Sources: The Federal, Record tea export gains at risk as West Asia crisis chokes shipping routes; The Assam Tribune, Tea industry concerned over Iran/Middle East conflict impact on Assam orthodox exports.